The most popular pulp market in the fourth quarter

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In the fourth quarter of 2020, the pulp market changed its declining trend. Will the price continue to be strong in 2021

release date: Source: Zhuo Chuang paper

in the fourth quarter of 2020, the pulp price changed the low-level shock finishing pattern in the early stage, and began to rise sharply. In December, the single month increase of needle leaf pulp and broad-leaved pulp was 13.92% and 4.76% respectively introduced by the person in charge of Panyu inspection and Quarantine Bureau, laying the basic tone for the price increase in the beginning of 2021. In January 2021, the monthly increase of needle leaf pulp and broad-leaved pulp reached a new high. Will prices continue to be strong in 2021

in the fourth quarter of 2020, the pulp price changed the low-level and volatile finishing pattern in the early stage, and began to rise continuously. Among them, the quarterly average price of coniferous pulp rose by 5.36% month on month, and the average price of broad-leaved pulp also rose, rising by 2.71% month on month. From the monthly average price, it can be seen that in December, the monthly average price of broad-leaved pulp increased by 4.76% month on month and 10.37% year on year; The average monthly price of coniferous pulp increased by 13.92% month on month and 8.68% year on year. In January, on the basis of the price increase in December 2020, the price of coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp rose by more than 20% quarter on quarter

the main reasons for this round of rising pulp prices are as follows:

first, influenced by the news (rising sea freight, macro loose expectation, vaccine put into use, expectation of tight supply of hardwood chips, etc.) and capital leading factors, the futures prices have continued to rise sharply, and the market liquidity has tightened, driving up the spot market prices

second, the new round of imported wood pulp has been rising continuously. From the fourth quarter to now, coniferous pulp has risen by 230 US dollars per ton, and broad-leaved pulp has risen by 170 US dollars per ton. It is said that the coniferous pulp has been effectively traded one after another, and the cost pressure on the domestic spot market has increased in the late stage; At the same time, the global outer disk resonance triggered by the Chinese market has been formed, and the letters of pulp and paper price increase in Europe have been released one after another, which will then affect the Asian market

third, downstream base paper enterprises have successively issued several price increase letters. Since the fourth quarter, 1300/ton of wood pulp base paper for household use has been implemented, and the pulp inventory in major regions and ports has been reduced in a narrow range, boosting market confidence

in the fourth quarter, the maintenance news of pulp mills at home and abroad was continuously released, affecting the output of about 230000 tons of wood pulp. Although it was routine maintenance, the news continued to support the market trend

fifth, under the influence of the policy of banning the import of waste paper at the end of 2020, the industry expects to alleviate the increasingly serious problem of sustainable development of people and the environment. Wood pulp has become the first choice for the replacement of waste paper, and the price of imported wood pulp has been supported

sixth, the market expectations are relatively consistent, and the industry has a strong desire for growth. The price of pulp and paper keeps rising, and due to the influence of various factors, the expectation of the industry is unprecedented unified. At the same time, the rise in the price of pulp futures is conducive to the implementation or removal of the price increase letter of pulp and paper

however, for this round of rise, some operators are cautious. Their views are mainly reflected in:

first, the fundamentals of the pulp market have not changed significantly, and the supply-demand gap is still about 4million tons. In terms of import and export, the volume of imported wood pulp in the first 11 months increased by 9.81% year-on-year; In the first 11 months, the export volume of double offset paper, coated paper and white cardboard decreased by 30%, 42% and 32% respectively

second, the supply of broad-leaved pulp is abundant, dragging down the overall pulp price trend. Among them, the volume of imported broad-leaved pulp increased by 15.96% year-on-year; The output of domestic broad-leaved pulp increased by 4.00% year-on-year. On the whole, the supply of broad-leaved pulp as the main raw material for papermaking was abundant, which dragged down the trend of pulp price

third, downstream cultural paper enterprises successively issued shutdown and overhaul letters, which affected the output of upper jaw base paper in the lower device of the upper beam of about 200000 tons of cultural paper in January, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, putting pressure on the pulp market

fourth, the pulp price rose too fast, which affected the profitability of the paper industry in the later stage. Due to the separation from the fundamentals, the operators mainly delivered the early-stage contracts, the superimposed scale paper mills had safety inventory, and the consumption of the early-stage raw material inventory was mainly, and the high price spot transaction was just in demand

analysis of influencing factors for the future market:

negative factors:

uncertainties brought by public health events to the economy still exist. From a domestic perspective, under the uncertain factors of public health events in Hebei, both pulp and paper are affected, and the speed of pulp consumption is limited. In addition, this month is the stock period of the paper mill before the year, and the high price is not conducive to the large-scale pulp market

from the perspective of cost, it is roughly estimated that the arrival cost of coniferous pulp is less than 5000/ton and that of broad-leaved pulp is less than 4000/ton. Large scale paper mills have more advantages in cost

according to the customs data, the volume of China's imported broad-leaved pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Chile, Uruguay and Canada increased by 1.71 million tons in the first 11 months. In addition to the demand, broad-leaved pulp will also affect the price trend of coniferous pulp. Although Brazil has successively announced the maintenance plan, it is expected to have little impact on the import volume in January. At the same time, from the volume of Brazil's exported broad-leaved pulp to China, it was 600000 tons in November, It is 10000 tons lower than the average annual value in 2020 and more than 60000 tons higher than that in the same period last year

favorable factors:

from the perspective of supply, the import volume of needle pulp in the first 11 months decreased by 1.52% year on year. From the perspective of the export of needle pulp to China in November, Canada decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. Under the influence of pulp futures, the liquidity of needle volume decreased, and the supply of needle pulp may be relatively tight

from the demand side, the safety stock of raw materials of large-scale paper mills is relatively stable and has strong anti risk ability. Recently, the letters of increasing the price of base paper issued successively by the downstream are conducive to the de stocking of base paper enterprises, and the inventory is transferred to the downstream. However, when the export is blocked, it cannot be effectively digested; The shutdown and overhaul letter of the cultural paper factory is conducive to the digestion of the downstream base paper inventory, delaying the accumulation of the cultural paper inventory, and laying the foundation for the later price increase

the price trend of needle leaf pulp may be stronger in the long run, supported by positive factors such as the rising of the external market, the high operation of the futures price, inflation expectations, and the price increase letter of the downstream base paper. In 2021, there will be a lot of new production capacity of broad-leaved pulp. However, due to the uncertainty of the time when the new production capacity will be put into operation, some will be put into operation in the second half of the year. Therefore, in the first half of the year, the supply pressure may appear in the second half of the year, following the price trend of coniferous pulp

in the short term, the futures and spot prices of coniferous pulp have increased too much in the short term. After the passive increase of household paper, there is an unexpected increase and a partner of wide communication and cooperation, but the price increase of cultural paper is limited and there is a phenomenon of accumulation of stocks; At the same time, the price of pulp futures has increased too much, attracting attention from the gold side. In the case of no change in the supply and demand side, it is expected that after the hype, it may return to the fundamentals. Zhuo Chuang information suggests paying attention to the waste paper policy, the actual maintenance situation of foreign pulp mills, the expectations of the industry, the direction of capital and the marginal changes in fundamentals

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